After the 2008 Olympics, Beijing Olympic Forest Park was opened to the public for free. Every weekend, it became a scenic highlight of the capital. Even the usually quiet park would suddenly be bustling with people braving the cold or heat to run. This year, the park added running tracks and built cloakrooms. Amid the flourishing of various major competitive sports events, a true running sanctuary for everyone was born—making one wonder: is running about to take off?
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[What the Beijing Marathon Reveals About Change]
The 2011 Beijing Marathon concluded on October 16. In the “Mini Marathon” category, one team stood out—it was a group of famous CCTV sports commentators including Dong Shinà, Shā Tóng, Yú Jiā, Wén Dòng, Wèi Xiǎonán, Hè Wěi, Zhū Xiǎolín, and Zhāng Shèng. They all successfully completed the race. Although it was just a 4.2-kilometer mini race, it marked a huge step forward in both talking and training.
I’ve been following the Beijing Marathon since 2000, and my first race was also the mini marathon. The 2000 Beijing Marathon was sponsored by Honghe. Later, perhaps because the marketing department of Honghe realized that runners generally don’t smoke or are quitting, their investment yielded no returns, so they stopped sponsoring. Afterwards, sponsors like Samsung, All Nippon Airways, and Hengyuanxiang took over for a few years each. By 2011, it was Beijing Hyundai Group. What does it mean when a car manufacturer sponsors a running event?
Looking at the bigger picture, you’ll see that running and driving aren’t mutually exclusive. One of the world’s top five marathons, the Berlin Marathon, has been sponsored by BMW for years. This suggests that those who buy and drive BMWs might very well be the same people who run marathons.
[What the Developed World Tells Us About the Future]
In terms of economy, technology, and modernization, we do have a significant gap compared to developed countries. For example, in the well-known TV series *Growing Pains*, the father, Jason Seaver, is a psychologist. The show was filmed in 1985, when the concept of a psychologist was virtually unheard of in China. But now we do have psychologists, even if people aren’t quite used to seeing them yet. With the arrival of the internet era, we are rapidly closing the gap with developed countries in terms of cultural awareness, including survival pressure and the associated sports culture.
In Chinese history, there has long been a strong sports culture, but it was more about walking than running. “A hundred steps after a meal will help you live to ninety-nine” is a traditional saying, but there’s no equivalent encouraging a jog after eating. The Chinese concept of walking for health and wellness is clearly much gentler, which also fits well with the relatively slower pace of life at the time. But now our pace of life has clearly accelerated—we don’t even have time to take leisurely walks.
In fact, running has long become a way of life for Americans. In September this year, I went to Boston to participate in a 320-kilometer relay race. I arrived at the hotel around noon, and right across from it were MIT and the Charles River. There were many people running along the river, and in that scene, I assumed it was common for Americans to run during their lunch breaks. But the next morning at 5 a.m., when I went out for a jog, I still saw plenty of people running along the river. I thought maybe Americans are just early risers. That night, after dining with friends and returning home late, I was surprised to see people still running along the river—even wearing headlamps in the dark.
The Charles River showed me how integral running is to American life. Like New York’s Central Park, it’s a globally renowned running destination. So naturally, I began to wonder: when will Beijing’s Olympic Forest Park become one of them? Maybe it’s already on its way.
Since we can foresee the future direction of lifestyle and technology, why not also take a look at what lies ahead for running?
[The Side Effects of Modernization]
After World War II, heart disease was dubbed the number one killer of humans. In the latest 2010 World Health Organization report, the incidence of chronic non-communicable diseases such as heart disease, cancer, and obesity continues to rise. Additionally, osteoporosis is becoming an increasingly serious health issue. The root cause of all these is closely tied to the modern way of life.
A quick browse online reveals that more and more elite individuals are dying young, and the population suffering from suboptimal health is constantly expanding. The internet and digitalization have stretched working hours endlessly, new technology has altered lifestyles that once required physical activity, and with the continuous improvement of services like food delivery and logistics, “staying at home” has become a lifestyle that allows people to stay connected to the outside world. Steve Jobs is gone, and his world-changing legacy has come to a halt. People have evolved from being fixed “homebodies” in the traditional internet era to mobile “homebodies” who can be anywhere. The most essential muscle movement has been reduced to finger games, and our evolutionarily strengthened physiques are now at risk of rusting away from disuse.
In truth, balance is the foundation of health. Especially in the accelerating phase of modernization, the human body needs to return to primal movements to maintain that balance. The principle of “adding alkali when it’s sour, salt when it’s bland” is common knowledge, yet few can stick to the simple rule of moving around after sitting for too long. No wonder some articles jokingly say, “The chair is the number one killer of health.” Therefore, to counteract these side effects of modernization, we need exercise—not the kind that competes for medals in elite sports, but mass-participation sports that everyone can engage in. And the simplest of them all is running.
Long-distance running can effectively reduce the probability of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. As long as we dodge the number one killer—heart disease—we also avoid the most terrifying health threat.
[Leading by Example: The Elite]
Many people think running is too simple, not prestigious enough, and a low-tier sport. In reality, while the barrier to entry for running is indeed low, it’s not short of high-profile participants. Former U.S. Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush are both marathon enthusiasts and practitioners. We’ve all seen them running through the streets of Washington with their entourages on TV. At this year’s Beijing Marathon, the CCTV media team started trying out the mini marathon—a great beginning. As far as I know, celebrity Mo Shaocong has participated in the Tibet Half Marathon, whose difficulty is also easy to imagine.
In fact, many executives and elites around me also take part in running. On a daily basis, they may be envied for owning Mercedes-Benzes, BMWs, luxury homes, and designer bags, but what’s even more admirable is their ability to run marathons around the world and then proudly display their medals. Therefore, running—as a sport that highlights personal ability and values—is more influential than material possessions.
[“Going With the Flow” Is the Right Move]
By 2011, Li Ka-shing remained the richest person among ethnic Chinese. This influential tycoon’s business journey has largely focused on serving the world’s largest customer base—the generation born after the baby boom of World War II. From early plastics and children’s toys to later real estate, beauty, and health products, all met the needs of that post-war generation at specific times. The general trend for industrial companies is to “go with the flow,” and the rigid demands of the world’s largest generation can definitely sustain any industry.
Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, there have been three population peaks. Shortly after the founding, the first baby boom occurred when childbirth was encouraged, with a population growth rate of nearly 300%. However, due to the small base population at the time, the absolute numbers were not large. The second baby boom began after the end of the three-year natural disasters in 1962, lasting from 1965 to 1973. This was the largest birth cohort in Chinese history and the main baby boom that had the greatest impact on the later economy. From 1986 to 1990, the children of the main baby boom generation—known as the echo baby boom—were born. Therefore, any attempt that meets the needs of these three population peaks is bound to have a promising future.
So, let’s see if running has rigid demand among these three generations. The generation born after the founding of the PRC is now around 60 years old, in the age range where they focus on treating illness or staying healthy if they’re not sick. This group generally has time, and the middle-aged and elderly fitness programs promoted by Professor Zhao Zhixin from the Sports University perfectly cater to their needs. Just look at the racecourses—you’ll see that middle-aged and elderly runners have become the main force. The main baby boom generation is now in their forties, the absolute backbone of today’s socio-economic landscape. Many in this group are overweight, need to lose weight, or are being forced to exercise. The echo baby boomers—the post-80s—are at the most unpredictable stage of life, facing immense pressures from buying homes, starting careers, getting married, and having children. For many, running has become a way to relieve stress. In other words, the population running for the three purposes of treating illness, staying healthy, or relieving stress makes up the majority of China’s population—and the demand is clearly rigid.
If the most-watched sport in the world is football, then the most participatory is running. Running is simple to do, has a low barrier to entry, yet boasts deep cultural roots and offers significant benefits for both body and mind. The demographic in need of it is also enormous. By any measure, this sport has all the makings of a promising industry. Therefore, the future of running depends on how well we can identify opportunities within niche markets.