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An hour ago, you were sitting in your car, thinking that taking this path would lead you out of the forest—but it was just a waste of time. Now you’ve ended up here, surrounded by endless trees.
You walk along the trail, admiring the ferns underfoot or paying respect to an ancient tree. When was the last time you saw a signpost? You've been walking for fifteen minutes, but see nothing. The trail narrows, and still, nothing. Anxiety, fear, and anger creep in—have you gotten lost?
Of course, you’re not the first person to get lost in the forest. According to unofficial statistics, over the years about 1,600 people have gone missing in various U.S. state and national parks. But there’s no need to panic—fewer than 100 people go missing in national parks each year, so you're statistically more likely to be hit by a car in New York City.
So what happens if you do get lost? What can you expect, and how will authorities respond? Kirby-Lynn Shedlowski, spokesperson for the U.S. National Park Service, has the answers.
Of course, there are many variables. Every hiker who gets lost in a national park experiences something different—much depends on their experience level, location, what they know, and what they think they know.
Let’s start with the best-case scenario. You told some friends you were going hiking and would meet them around 2 p.m. You entered the park with a ranger, who recommended the most beautiful trail available at the moment. But somehow, you got lost. As your mom probably told you in the grocery store when you were a kid—you should stay put and wait for someone to find you. And when you don’t show up for your meeting, your friends will worry and contact the park. That’s when you’ll be considered an overdue hiker.
Park rangers will quickly begin searching, looking in the last place you were seen. Since you also spoke with a ranger, they’ll search the trail they recommended. Within an hour or two, you’ll be back in your car—embarrassed, but safe.
Things can get worse depending on how many people know your plans and how aware you are that you’re lost. If you decided to go hiking on a whim without telling anyone, it might take a while before anyone realizes you’re missing.
Shedlowski points out that there are no set rules in the parks dictating when live search and rescue operations begin—it all depends on the situation. If you’re an experienced hiker who regularly goes on week-long hikes and you’re only a day late, no one will assume you’re missing. You’re overdue, but not necessarily gone. But if you’re older, less experienced, and the weather looks dangerous, the park may initiate a search immediately.
Shedlowski says: “Once we gather the information, an overdue hiker becomes a missing person—and that’s when the park calls in specialized search teams.”
If you’re smart, you’ll stay put when you’re lost—but chances are, you won’t be that smart. Shedlowski explains: “When people get lost in the woods, their first instinct is often to turn back. Sometimes panic sets in, especially as it gets darker and colder, and you just want to find somewhere to rest—and that’s when trouble begins.”
For missing persons, search teams use complex mathematical models to define the search area. The logic is straightforward, Shedlowski says: “Humans can only travel so far in a given amount of time. If we know they went missing on the XYZ trail, we can estimate how far they might have gone.”
The more information the search team has, the higher your chance of being found—and the smaller the search area. But if you keep moving, and the search team has no idea where you went missing, the search area will expand.
Of course, the longer the search takes, the longer it will be before you’re found. You might start to panic out in the wilderness, wondering about wild animals. Every sudden snap of a twig makes you think something is following you.
In some cases, encountering wildlife in the forest can be even riskier—like during mating season when male animals are more aggressive, or in spring when female animals may act defensively if they think you’re a threat to their young. Wildlife isn’t as hostile as people imagine.
Beyond wildlife, you also worry about having no food, no water, and nowhere to rest. Again, there are no hard and fast rules about survival. While you could die of dehydration within hours in extreme heat, it’s very likely the search team will find you before that happens. According to U.S. National Park statistics, fewer than fifty people died from heatstroke, hypothermia, or wildlife encounters between 2004 and 2007.
That said, if you don’t tell anyone where you’re going, it might take days before anyone realizes you’re lost. That’s scary—because the longer you’re out there, the more you’ll need to find water, food, and shelter. Even those who deliberately try to get lost can end up in trouble.
Even if you’ve had survival training, you shouldn’t take any chances. If you hike regularly, let someone know where you’re going and when you plan to return. Shedlowski says: “Telling others your route and plans is the most important thing. It helps rescuers find you as quickly as possible.”