A decade ago, Beijing was almost a bicycle paradise. There were no dedicated bike lanes back then, but these two-wheeled human-powered vehicles ruled the roads. In what seemed like a hallucination conjured up by environmentalists, herds of bicycles would patiently wait at traffic lights and then surge forward to their destinations all at once. By contrast, biking in my hometown of Boston seemed almost crazy—it was easy to get hit by motor vehicles.
The situation today has completely reversed. When I rented a bicycle and rode around Beijing last week, people stared at me as if I were insane. On the bike paths around the Forbidden City, you’d mostly see motorcyclists and the occasional brave Westerner. Meanwhile, Boston, like many other American cities, has become a bike-friendly place.
The transportation revolution in China is a parable filled with unintended consequences and counterintuitive incentives. It begins with good news: as China has grown wealthier, its people have gained access to goods their ancestors could never have dreamed of. The car is a great invention. But one consequence of the rapid increase in cars is worsening street pollution. The filthy air has driven more people into their cars, leading to even worse air quality.
Commuting by car not only pollutes the air but also clogs the roads. Faced with severe traffic congestion, the Beijing municipal government has implemented a “license plate rationing” system for cars. People have given up biking because of the bad air, but they also can’t drive due to the license restrictions. So they all flock to the subway. Beijing’s subway is clean and efficient, but it’s the most crowded one I’ve ever ridden.
Given this environment, driving is the best personal choice. People prefer cars, and as more do, there are more cars. In terms of consequences, people’s free choices about how to get around are triggering a disaster—but market regulation is indispensable. By guiding the market and individual choices, China has made astonishing progress. On this front, China needs more experimentation and greater individual freedom. But it’s important to note that the market must be regulated. Restoring Beijing’s (good) air and bicycle culture—well, a one-party state certainly has its strengths.