How to buy cheap flights to Japan: Experts explain why low-cost fares won’t be this low again

▲ Low-cost carriers are extremely popular in Taiwan. (Photo / Provided by Peach Aviation)

Reported by Yujia Yun / Journalist

Since low-cost carriers aggressively entered the Taiwanese market, Japan—Taiwanese travelers’ favorite destination—has become a key battleground for airlines. However, compared to the ultra-low promotional prices when low-cost airlines first launched in Taiwan, such as one-way Taipei-Tokyo tickets for NT$888 and round-trip fares including taxes for under NT$3,000, current ticket prices for Japan routes are no longer what they used to be, leading many to sigh, “It’s just not the same anymore.” As for why this is happening, Philip, founder of the fan pageTaiwan Low-Cost Airline Welfare Societyexplains that the disappearance of super-cheap promotional fares on Japan routes is related to airlines reducing seat availability as a way to control pricing.

Philip from Taiwan Low-Cost Airline Welfare Society noted that airlines launch their lowest promotional prices during the winter and summer seasons or when introducing new routes to attract buyers. If the first round of sales performs well and clears out the lowest, second-lowest, and third-lowest (usually the basic fare) ticket prices, subsequent promotions are less likely. On the other hand, if sales are below expectations, airlines will continue to offer various promotional deals.

So why exactly have Japan route prices from low-cost carriers changed so much? Philip analyzed that for Taiwan’s most popular Japan destinations—including Tokyo, Osaka, and Okinawa—the primary reason may be“reduced seat capacity.”Based on data from the Civil Aeronautics Administration, comparing the 12-month periods from November 2015 to October 2016 and from November 2016 to October 2017, the total number of seats available from Taiwan to Tokyo and Osaka decreased by approximately 470,000 each. However, the number of passengers traveling to Tokyo only dropped by 123,000, while Osaka actually saw an increase of 35,000 passengers.Although seat capacity was significantly reduced, the average load factor for both routes actually increased.Tokyo’s load factor rose from 80.45% to 88.97%, and Osaka’s went up from 73.58% to 85.55%. Meanwhile, the popular Okinawa route maintained a load factor above 85% from February to October, making promotions largely unnecessary to attract passengers.

▲ Chart showing seat capacity, passenger numbers, and load factors for popular Japan routes from Taiwan. (Photo / Screenshot fromTaiwan Low-Cost Airline Welfare SocietyFacebook page)

Philip explained that these three routes show how airlines are now also using supply control to manage pricing. For profitable routes, reducing the number of flights or switching to smaller aircraft can actually lead to higher profits. Moreover, as demand for higher load factors increases, airlines don’t need to operate as leanly, and all carriers can maintain ticket prices at a certain level or above.

For travelers looking to buy low-cost tickets to Japan, Philip also provided reference “reasonable prices” when it might be a good time to book. He believes that a fair price for Tokyo and Osaka during the off-season is around NT$4,500, NT$6,500 during peak holiday seasons like summer and winter vacations, and over NT$8,000 during consecutive holidays. He also advised travelers to keep an eye on each low-cost carrier’s promotional highlights, such as:Scoot’s two to three major super promotions per year, where you might find round-trip tickets to Sapporo for NT$4,500 or to Osaka for NT$4,000. Peach Aviation’s anniversary sale in November may offer round-trip Okinawa tickets for NT$2,000 or Osaka for NT$3,100. Vanilla Air’s lowest promotional prices usually appear during the first wave of summer and winter sales, with round-trip Tokyo and Osaka tickets priced around NT$3,900.

While saving money on travel is important, Philip also reminded travelers not to obsess over getting the absolute cheapest ticket. “It’s more than enough if you can get a relatively affordable fare,” he said. He also advised against constantly checking if prices might drop after booking, as it could ruin your travel mood.